Pension stuff, how's it all looking ? HAve you prepared ?

[IccyV2]

My pot is 70% cash in fixed term/fixed rate bonds or savings, that's easy because you put it in and forget about it and at 5% for most of it I think it will at least tread water for a few years and still be worth what it was when I put it in, which is all I want really.

The rest is in physical assets that are easily liquidated.

My simple spreadsheet shows that if interest rates stay above 5% we can live just on the interest, if they are between 3-5% we can live on interest and draw down and it'll last until our late-eighties. If interest drops to zero then we draw down every month and it'll run out at seventy-five, if we retired today.
We'll sell the assets we have as we go along to hopefully supplement our income as we need it and we could also downsize, our house is quite big.

It's very basic and any FA would have a fit because I'm playing a zero sum game, but I can't handle the stress of the stock market in retirement and wondering when/if it's going to crash.

[weeksy]

I was slightly surprised that my pension company have started moving mine to a slightly more agressive portfolio, which surprised me a bit in truth as when i hit 50 they put it into a more conservative plan. It seems some restructuring thing... So i've kinda gone with it as they're moving over the next 2 years and i expect by then i'll be coming up with plan B.

[weeksy]

My pot is 70% cash in fixed term/fixed rate bonds or savings, that's easy because you put it in and forget about it and at 5% for most of it I think it will at least tread water for a few years and still be worth what it was when I put it in, which is all I want really.

The rest is in physical assets that are easily liquidated.

My simple spreadsheet shows that if interest rates stay above 5% we can live just on the interest, if they are between 3-5% we can live on interest and draw down and it'll last until our late-eighties. If interest drops to zero then we draw down every month and it'll run out at seventy-five, if we retired today.
We'll sell the assets we have as we go along to hopefully supplement our income as we need it and we could also downsize, our house is quite big.

It's very basic and any FA would have a fit because I'm playing a zero sum game, but I can't handle the stress of the stock market in retirement and wondering when/if it's going to crash.

But if you draw on all that, would you also have property/assets you could if needed use like houses/cars and sell/downgrade ?
Those numbers seem good and positive enough as they stand.

[JackyJoll]

I was slightly surprised that my pension company have started moving mine to a slightly more agressive portfolio, which surprised me a bit in truth as when i hit 50 they put it into a more conservative plan. It seems some restructuring thing... So i've kinda gone with it as they're moving over the next 2 years and i expect by then i'll be coming up with plan B.

Maybe they haven’t forgotten what happened to “low risk” bonds, during the Liz Truss thing.

[weeksy]

I was slightly surprised that my pension company have started moving mine to a slightly more agressive portfolio, which surprised me a bit in truth as when i hit 50 they put it into a more conservative plan. It seems some restructuring thing... So i've kinda gone with it as they're moving over the next 2 years and i expect by then i'll be coming up with plan B.

Maybe they haven’t forgotten what happened to “low risk” bonds, during the Liz Truss thing.

Sod knows mate, i have generally gone with their options as my thoughts are that they know what they're doing way more than i do. That's generally seemed to be the case as far as i can tell.

[Count Steer]

A manager who wants to handle your investments can tell you that investment portfolios of his have beaten the market trackers eight years out of the last ten, or somesuch flannel.

Trouble is, he doesn’t show you his other portfolios that were running at the same time and didn’t beat anything.

Same with individuals really. It's much easier to publicise the wins than the losses . For every 'I made a million on crypto' there are probably quite a lot of 'I lost my shirt' ones that don't see the light of day.

The cult of the 'star fund manager' is probably one to swerve too. (Unless it's Warren Buffett - and he's going to have to hand over the reins soon. Even he played a long game - and had significant sway on some of the companies that his company invested in, given the amount of $ at his disposal).

[Count Steer]

I was slightly surprised that my pension company have started moving mine to a slightly more agressive portfolio, which surprised me a bit in truth as when i hit 50 they put it into a more conservative plan. It seems some restructuring thing... So i've kinda gone with it as they're moving over the next 2 years and i expect by then i'll be coming up with plan B.

It may be that with interest rates dropping they've decided to perk things up a bit without an excessive rise in risk, just add a bit more balance?

[Horse]

I was slightly surprised that my pension company have started moving mine to a slightly more agressive portfolio, which surprised me a bit in truth as when i hit 50 they put it into a more conservative plan. It seems some restructuring thing... So i've kinda gone with it as they're moving over the next 2 years and i expect by then i'll be coming up with plan B.

Maybe they haven’t forgotten what happened to “low risk” bonds, during the Liz Truss thing.

I haven't ... As I might have mentioned a few times.

'Safer', as a result of Liz and Kwazi, now has different definition.

[Dodgy69]

Mines in a growth portfolio. I know the past 10 years doesn't mean the next 10 years will have same results, but the cautious portfolios have performed poorly in those years. Yes, there have been set backs like Truss but they soon bounce back.

I generally check mine once a week ish just coz I can, but they do recommend not looking too often as it's a long term investment and can give people unnecessary jitters when you see your numbers drop. I'm pulling on mine and it's still growing.

[Count Steer]

Mines in a growth portfolio. I know the past 10 years doesn't mean the next 10 years will have same results, but the cautious portfolios have performed poorly in those years. Yes, there have been set backs like Truss but they soon bounce back.

As a Sarf Efrican might say:

'I big your poddin?'

Soon bounce back? No they *bleep* well did not!! Mine lost 30% and 3.5 years later was still 10% down. That's 10 % down and 3 years lost accumulated growth.

Me? Sore? Just a tad. Fortunate not to have all the eggs in that particular basket.

[Horse]

Mines in a growth portfolio. I know the past 10 years doesn't mean the next 10 years will have same results, but the cautious portfolios have performed poorly in those years. Yes, there have been set backs like Truss but they soon bounce back.

As a Sarf Efrican might say:

'I big your poddin?'

Soon bounce back? No they *bleep* well did not!! Mine lost 30% and 3.5 years later was still 10% down. That's 10 % down and[/b ]3 years lost accumulated growth.

Me? Sore? Just a tad. Fortunate not to have all the eggs in that particular basket.

Similar here

It's only 'soon' in glacial terms. And, for reference, the L&T shitshow was only 8 months before my planned retirement date. Luckily, I wasn't relying on it.

[Count Steer]

Just so I'm not all doom and gloom...I also have some of these....

[gremlin]

I was slightly surprised that my pension company have started moving mine to a slightly more agressive portfolio, which surprised me a bit in truth as when i hit 50 they put it into a more conservative plan. It seems some restructuring thing... So i've kinda gone with it as they're moving over the next 2 years and i expect by then i'll be coming up with plan B.

Maybe they haven’t forgotten what happened to “low risk” bonds, during the Liz Truss thing.

Bonds, by their design, are low risk. They have a set tenor and interest rate and pay coupon at known intervals. Take the most vanilla, a fixed rate bond, and you know the cashflows up front. From an accrual accounting perspective a piece of piss. They even rank above shareholders in the event of insolvency. So far, so rosy in the garden, right?

Where it all goes a bit volatile is when the bonds are 'marked to market'. Put simply, say your bond pays 5% every 6 months. If you can get 6% elsewhere, your bond is less attractive. If you want to sell it, you'll have to sell it at a discount. The same applies if rates drop: your bond is now selling at a premium. Hence your bond now has interest rate sensitivity. If they're, say USD denominated, you have currency risk. None of this should matter if you are going to hold your bond to maturity in, say, 10 years time. The trouble is that investment companies, banks, etc. hold a portfolio of many different bonds, with different maturities, rate, fixed vs. float vs. zero coupon, etc. and if all the investors suddenly come looking to withdraw, they don't have the luxury of saying, 'Nah. I'm good. I'm holding these babies 'til maturity'. Hence they can't use accrual accounting and the whole basket has to be marked to market.

Hence a bond portfolio has market sensitivity. Of course, this can be hedged with interest rate products such as basis swaps. Different currency denominations can be hedged with dual currency swaps, etc.

Tricky business. Glad I'm not involved.

[Dodgy69]

Mines in a growth portfolio. I know the past 10 years doesn't mean the next 10 years will have same results, but the cautious portfolios have performed poorly in those years. Yes, there have been set backs like Truss but they soon bounce back.

As a Sarf Efrican might say:

'I big your poddin?'

Soon bounce back? No they *bleep* well did not!! Mine lost 30% and 3.5 years later was still 10% down. That's 10 % down and 3 years lost accumulated growth.

Me? Sore? Just a tad. Fortunate not to have all the eggs in that particular basket.

Mine bounced back pretty sharpish.

[MyLittleStudPony]

Remember 'The Lost Decade'. The FTSE and S&P didn't get back to 2000 levels until about 2013. More like a lost 13 years really.

[JackyJoll]

Just so I'm not all doom and gloom...I also have some of these....

This is the Stocks and shares ISA. “Global,” all equities.

[Count Steer]

Mine bounced back pretty sharpish.

I think there's degrees of 'cautious'. If, like me and Hoss*, you're on the final glide path to retirement, cautious is the 'this may not appreciate but it's as nukeproof as we can make it so you don't hit the retirement date just as it drops'. It's the investment equivalent of keeping it under the mattress.

Unfortunately the powers that be were smoking skunk in the bed.

* I'd retired some time before but left it as it was, for 'safekeeping'. That, and doing something about it was one of things I'd always do 'next week'. Oops.

[v8-powered]

The pot that my wife manages for me, last time I checked it was 37% up - so not too shabby.

In her business they do run several different investment portfolios - some better than others, but with mine she frequently moves the investments around but in nothing too risky due to my age.

[Count Steer]

Just so I'm not all doom and gloom...I also have some of these....

This is the Stocks and shares ISA. “Global,” all equities.

Slightly different time base but yes, I've got some FTSE UK index, FTSE All World index and some US index funds in an old ISA and they've taken some of the sting out of the hatchet job on the 'safe' stash.

Whether they will keep defying gravity is the $x,000 question.

[weeksy]

The pot that my wife manages for me, last time I checked it was 37% up - so not too shabby.

In her business they do run several different investment portfolios - some better than others, but with mine she frequently moves the investments around but in nothing too risky due to my age.

i need a new wife too